GFMS报告:2015年将是金价最低点 去年金矿产量或已见顶

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近日汤森路透GFMS公司发布黄金年鉴2014第二版。

汤森路透提供给凤凰财经的这份报告认为,今年将会是黄金价格的最低点;尽管市场投资情绪不稳,但长线而言仍有不少正面因素。

2015年首月国际金价大涨8%,为2012年1月来最大升幅。GFMS称,最近带动市场升势的主要因素是投资者补仓而非长仓。

该报告认为,2014年的黄金市场较2013年波动的市场相对温和,风波过后开始建立长线市场发展基础。

实物市场方面,亚洲投资者于2014年对投资实物黄金的态度有所改变,不再趁价格低迷时将资金投入,反而是静观其变,憧憬市场回暖。2014年年内黄金净购买量为自布列敦森林协定时期(1944年)以来的第二高,其中俄罗斯是众多购买黄金国家中最活跃的国家,其年度购买量为苏联解体后之新高。

此份数据并显示,黄金珠宝生产量较2013年下跌11%,但相比2012年则增长6%;金条及金币需求相对2013年及2012年分别下降40%及22%。 GFMS认为2014年金矿的产量或已见顶,预期2015年产量的增长将大幅放缓。

踏入2015年,市场的动态将较为平稳,实物黄金的需求开始重拾动力,为市场的长线发展奠定基础。不过,相信市场还要面对一些逆境才能再现牛市。

英文版原文

Gold building a base for long-term bull market

Thomson Reuters publishes GFMS’ Update 2 to the Gold Survey 2014

Thomson Reuters today released “Update 2”, the second of the two interim updates to the 2014 edition of the GFMS Gold Survey, which looks at the global market shifts and developments over the year.

·From wound-licking to base-building;

The gold market was tamed in 2014 after its wild activity in 2013, during which professional investors stampeded for the exit while Asian investors over-stocked (as did some banks). The clear knock-on effect was stifled physical demand in 2014, compounded by limited expectations of a price recovery; and continued resistance to gold in the professional fraternity.

·Asian investors exhibited something of a paradigm shift in purchasing attitudes in 2014

Partly as a result of 2013 activity, price-responsive physical investors around the world confounded expectations of suppliers in 2014. The much-vaunted $1,200 target level, expected to trigger pent-up demand, passed by almost unnoticed as would-be buyers stood aside as prices slumped, awaiting stability and a sign of an upturn. Currency moves were important, but this attitude is different from historical activity, in which these purchasers would buy into a falling market in the search for value. This time they were looking for comfort in the outlook.

·Official sector net purchases in 2014 were the second highest since Bretton Woods

Russia was an exceptionally strong gold buyer in 2014 (the highest annual reported purchases since the break-up of the USSR) while other countries in the region were also active. Gross sales remained minimal. Repatriation among other nations is a pattern that is expected to continue.

·Mine production growth is expected to slow to a trickle in 2015…

The industry remains in a precarious position with All-in Costs, excluding impairments, estimated at $1,300/ounce for the first nine months of 2014. Good husbandry over the past two years has, however, put a number of projects back on the shelf and GFMS believes that 2014 may prove to have been the peak.

·… while scrap supply is expected to bottom out in 2015.

Near-market material remains depleted and the toughening of regulations with respect to money laundering in a number of countries has also constrained scrap supply. Regional attitudes varied, with US stockists behaving in the opposite manner to those in India, for example, over the course of the year.

·Jewellery fabrication was down 11% against 2013 but up 6% against 2012.

Investment bar and coin demand fell 40% and 22% against 2013 and 2012 respectively. Both these sectors are bottoming out in 2015.

·The market’s dynamics are more settled as we move into 2015…

Underlying physical demand is starting to build again and will give the market longer-term ballast.

·…but there are more headwinds to face before we can call an outright bull market

Professional investors are still absent as the dollar (and Treasuries) remains King and fresh professional investment into gold is unlikely much before there is clarity on the Fed’s timing over rate hikes. Continued monetary easing in Europe, Japan and China will support the dollar in the medium term, pointing away from gold investment, especially as US equities, on an historical multiple at least, are not over-extended.

·Recent strength has been driven by short-covering, not fresh longs

Although this means that the market is not under a speculative overhang, it also points to uncertain sentiment. For the longer-term there are a number of bullish forces in place; the SNB abolition of the CHF:€ cap is arguably bullish, as is the fall in the oil price (over 60% of jewellery demand comes from countries that benefit substantially from lower oil prices).

·Longer-term fundamentals are bullish

As well as the knock-on benefits of lower oil prices there are inflationary forces on the long-term horizon (energy only contributes 8% to US CPI) as a result of the massive liquidity in the system. This year will see the nadir of the gold price.

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